How Can We Gain Influence & Make a Difference

[JohnHunt]

Y'all are probably are aware of the recent open letter to the Obama administration advocating commercial space. It was signed by 56 space leaders:

http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=34355

I'm definitely a supporter of more commercial space. BUT there are some things about this letter which greatly concerns me and so I am trying to figure out how I can create influence (starting from zero) so as to affect the future of America's space plans.

Here are my concerns:
- There is an emphasis on human space flight. Whereas, this is my ultimate goal (e.g. human colonization off Earth) my strong belief is that we need to emphasize robotic and development in preparation for a PERMANENT human colony off Earth. If we spend a lot of our budget up front on human space flights to nowhere permanent then that just means more delay before we can have a permanent off-Earth human colony. Obama's trips to an asteroid & martian moon (and even Mars) is IMO a terrible delay to a self-sufficient colony.
- Commercial activity is limited to LEO. LEO is going to be mastered commercially in very short order. Commercial can greatly reduce costs beyond LEO IF the purpose beyond LEO is commercial ! This letter is arguing for manned space flight beyond LEO which won't make Obama change his stated plans to go on expensive, non-development, manned missions to nowhere.
- The emphasis is on exploration NOT development ! Grrrrr ! We can use robots to explore at 1/10th to 1/100th the cost of sending humans. Also, robotic mission failures won't create years-long delays in accident investigations. Cis-lunar development will ENABLE any future mission.

More later...

[JohnHunt]

O.K. Continuing on...

So, here I am with zero influence. How can I make a difference to get the Obama administration to set aside a modest proportion of NASAs budget towards stimulating the commercial development of cis-lunar space? Think COTS, CRS, CCT, XPrize, etc.

Before sharing my planned strategy, let me set the stage...

I'm a nobody (but I think that I'm right and that this is an important issue). So, I have taken the list of people who signed the open letter and did some research to get contact info (e-mail and telephone #s). It wasn't easy but I've got about:
- 15% - No contact info
- 42% - Direct e-mail address
- 42% - Indirect e-mail address (e.g. info@____.com)
- 20% - Phone #s (usually indirect)

First of all...What is my goal?
- just try to change minds and hope that this will have some concrete effect?
- get a new open letter or petition?
- change the mind of an influential administrative staffer?
- change the minds of congressional members on science committees?

Regarding contacting people who signed the open letter, should I:
- just initiate contact to develop a friendly acquaintance first?
- e-mail a statement (attached document or within the email)?
- ask for a 15-minute phone appointment?

Based upon my past experience doing similar things, it is only occasional that I get a response back from people (especially the more prominent they are). Some are very nice an personable. But most just don't reply at all. For those that do respond, more often than not the response will be negative with some stated reasons. In dialogue back and forth they frequently do not address my specific arguments but, like a lawyer, only make their arguments without really answering mine.

So, here's my plan...

I'm guessing that someone with prominence (e.g. a CEO of a fairly well-known aerospace firm) would have better success getting replies and favorable replies at that. So my goal is to find or convince someone of prominent who agrees with my arguments for NASA incentivizing beyond-LEO commercial development.

I then provide that person contact information and urge them to request that those people agree to have their name signed to another open letter. But, since many of them will have already signed an open letter to Obama, I am thinking that this new letter should be to the members of a congressional committee.

So, how do I get that first prominent individual on board? I am thinking that the best approach would be to do some research to find out who already has my views and/or who whose company would benefit the most from such a strategy. Then I will write up a concise document including the wording of the open letter, email it to this person and ask them if I can have a 15 minute phone appointment to discuss my e-mail with them. If I don't get a response then I'll keep working down the list of next-most-likely people until I find someone. If I don't get any genuine bites then I can go back to the top of the list and start with a phone call to them and ask their secretary for a 15-minute phone appointment.

So, what do guys think of this strategy?

[JohnHunt]

Oops, just noticed that the open letter is to "Members of Congress". Oh boy! Obama / Bolden have already stated their positions and so would likely be unwilling to change. So, who should the next open letter be to?

Also, as I re-read their open letter it, they are clearly asking for full funding of the Commercial Crew Transport which I support. But their somewhat ambiguous urging to "accelerate the pace and funding of NASA's human space exploration projects beyond Earth orbit" to me sounds like an appeal for the early development of a heavy-lift rocket.

I don't support this because there is no commercial value to a heavy-lift rocket, you can do everything that you need to do on the Moon with pairs of Falcon 9 Heavies, and a heavy lift rocket is just begging to spend tremendous amounts of money on manned missions to nowhere. This could absolutely kill the development of cis-lunar space and thereby greatly delaying the development of a lunar (or any) manned colony plus I could easily imagine it would leave the cis-lunar and lunar economy open to development and ownership by other countries. I'm not at all against other countries but NASA has, by far, the biggest budget so other countries will be slower in developing a lunar base.

[moonus111]

Right on John!

I'm in full agreement with writing letters to prominent officials. I've had a concept of doing something like this for a while. Yes, I had my own specifics (below), but the reality is that somebody has to write the letters that others can print out, email, fax, etc. It's high time we start going grass roots, and a cause like ours is to good to avoid it.

We've got to get over the "I'm a nobody" mentality, I wrestled with this for many years. It's important to everyone, weather they're with us or not. The importance outweighs any thought on lack of our personal significance. Just contacting as many "leaders" as possible should generate buzz enough...

Take everything with a grain of chill, because politics is a dirty game. Somebody WILL try to turn the words and twist them into a negative light. Many recipients will have negative reactions, and stir a crock pot full of vile insults and warped truths. The chill is needed because even negative publicity will get people thinking about our cause. Imagine Al Gore on a rant about how Space Power Satellites will hurt the environment, or Sarah Palin claiming that space investments hurt the economy. Nobody believes what politicians and leaders say, but they do listen and form their own opinions. Grabbing the ear is more important, because many do not know the benefits.

My concept: Write about 5-10 advocacy letters, make a list of "targets" and provide contact information... amazingly it's fairly easy to obtain. Let the people do the work, but also send a letter ourselves. It's pretty simple, it's easy, scalable, and volume is possible. If we write generic enough material in the letters we may get some reactions good or bad, but any reaction is good for us.

[JohnHunt]

Thanks for the encouragement and your thoughts.

[moonus111]

It's high time we start going grass roots, and a cause like ours is to good to avoid it.

S/B

It's high time we start going grass roots, and a cause like ours needs it.

[JohnHunt]

Logan,

Let me be clear about what I'm suggesting here. Typically the term "grass roots" means getting a large number of non-professionals together, organizing them, and then using that now powerful network to accomplish work towards generally agreed upon goals. The civil rights movement would be one example.

Actually, I don't want to wait to build up a lay network because I don't think that we have the time. That would be good for long-term goals. But for the following specific goals, I'd like to try and get lucky by directly convincing someone with power (e.g. name, position, etc) to take the lead and so presumably would have more of a likelihood to get the Administration to change their direction before their direction is set in cement.

The Obama Administration is already setting down its positions, and politically when doing so, it will be difficult for them to later publicly change their policy. Secondly (don't know when but...) the Congress will be voting whether to continue Constellation or to change NASAs direction, perhaps in alignment with the Administration. Given that most of Congress are Democrats and it seems as though, by in large it is only the Republicans in the states affected that are pushing back very much, I could imagine that Obama's direction is likely to be supported.

Secondly, as I have mentioned in other posts, we will be facing several different self-replicating and accelerating existential risks by mid-century. Any misdirection now with NASAs funds could prove disastrous.

I'd like to find the quickest, most effective path between myself (and any of the rest of us in this forum) and the desired outcome. So that's why I've designed my plan to try and jump past the stage of forming a grassroots movement through general educating efforts and trying to directly reach people with influence.

[moonus111]

John,

We're on the same side here man. I don't have a preference grassroots, or not. I just see so many people are already on board for space colonization, yet we're all separated by distance. If we work together it can help a whole lot more. Weather we get the ear of a powerful person, or we force the issue through grass-roots, it is no difference to me. Keep on trying, we all have to do our part. I'd go so far as to ask if I may see/use some of your letters, if you want to show them to me as help. Maybe we can work together to find people, Maybe we can make more of a difference...

I don't care about Obama, he's only got 2 years left. I can't get worked up about it, because it just makes my wheels lose grip. Maybe we can get the ears of the presidential candidates in the next term, whatever we have to do to get the message out.


Side notes on Conny:
I'm kinda okay with the Constellation being canceled. Management @ NASA made some really bad decisions early on in the design process, and it lead to the whole goal (reducing launch costs, and increasing capacity) being lost. They shot themselves in the foot. At least there's some funding available for another heavy lift system, and hopefully management doesn't screw it up. It's sad to see the whole thing go down the tubes, but it's very exciting to see so many people were behind a moon return.

[prometheuspan]

in my book, the most obvious way to get funding, approval, interest, attention, and press is to design a batch of really good idea space ships and habitats.

Whos with me on that?

[joertexas]

in my book, the most obvious way to get funding, approval, interest, attention, and press is to design a batch of really good idea space ships and habitats.

Whos with me on that?

First, let me say that I'm designing the lander and rovers for a lunar prospecting mission, so I love designing things, too.

But, people have been designing spacecraft since man has determined that spaceflight might be possible. There is no lack of ideas - even scientifically sound, well thought out ones. We have over a hundred years of science research and science fiction to draw ideas from.

What is needed is a way of recapturing the zeal for space exploration that President Kennedy stoked when he launched the Apollo program. I fully support Logan and others here who are seeking to do just that. Otherwise, our dreams will remain just dreams.

JR

[prometheuspan]

i think that the thing to focus on is that most of the wind went out of space exploration when we all secretly unsecretly knew that they were holding the technology back.

There are plenty of designs. almost all of them are trapped in 1970 or 1980.

Excitement is when we quit the make believe of that, and actually design modernly with modern materials.

I don'
t find the space shuttle that exciting for the reason that its archaic, and most people are dimly aware that technology has been held at a creeping stand still in order to keep us energy dependent.

Consciously or unconsciously we know it, and so we aren't excited by the cheap circus they put up to pretend an effort.

Exciting designs are the ones that quit the make believe.

[Vanessa]

I agree with Joe. But how was that space race started?? A cold war with the USSR. Thats how the government got involved. Then they advertised it and put propoganda on TV to get the American people on board. Basically, scared them. The fear that the Soviets might beat us to the moon and hence, take over the universe.....some kind of balogna like that....

Unfortunately, The golden age of aviation and space exploration is behind us. It's old news. To the government, money talks. If some kind of precious metal or element was found on say, the moon, in vast quantities that could be mined, they would now have that incentive. More countries would get involved and that race would begin again. The propaganda would again begin and people would fantasize and idealize and put us back in that place where funding would be available. Just a thought.....
But, how to get there....hmmm......

[joertexas]

(snip)

Unfortunately, The golden age of aviation and space exploration is behind us. It's old news. To the government, money talks. If some kind of precious metal or element was found on say, the moon, in vast quantities that could be mined, they would now have that incentive. More countries would get involved and that race would begin again. The propaganda would again begin and people would fantasize and idealize and put us back in that place where funding would be available. Just a thought.....
But, how to get there....hmmm......

One thought that comes to mind is that the moon has been pummeled with asteroids, just as the earth was at one time. Depending on the asteroids' composition, there is very likely a great deal of buried and scattered asteroidal material still easily accessible on or just under the lunar surface. Think of finding another Sudbury Astrobleme in a moon crater somewhere. A large supply of strategic metals would be enough to get anyone's attention.

Even if all the moon probes' instruments are wrong and there is no water ice, the moon is still an invaluable resource for us as we expand beyond LEO.

Oh, and welcome aboard, Vanessa! :)

JR

[prometheuspan]

First, let me say that I'm designing the lander and rovers for a lunar prospecting mission, so I love designing things, too.

But, people have been designing spacecraft since man has determined that spaceflight might be possible. There is no lack of ideas - even scientifically sound, well thought out ones. We have over a hundred years of science research and science fiction to draw ideas from.

What is needed is a way of recapturing the zeal for space exploration that President Kennedy stoked when he launched the Apollo program. I fully support Logan and others here who are seeking to do just that. Otherwise, our dreams will remain just dreams.

JR


frankly, i get no zeal. This has been about one of the most disappointing efforts to find a group to join i have run into yet.

You want zeal it starts on the inside and it counter transfers when you share it with others.

You want zeal that comes for most of the population when you have a plan that makes sense with blue prints for the technologies that pull it off.

You want MY zeal, that means actually pointing me towards any design process you have going. Which hasn't happened despite asking that question more or less three times now.

For the most part however, never mind, don't bother.

It seems clear that nobody here has the time, energy, or zeal to actually work problems open source, and it seems that I'm wasting my time here.

Good luck with your chit chat zone, and trying to talk people into a moon centered approach when all real sense, mathematics, and tactical strategy say go with an asteroids centered approach.

CIAO.

[joertexas]

frankly, i get no zeal. This has been about one of the most disappointing efforts to find a group to join i have run into yet.

You want zeal it starts on the inside and it counter transfers when you share it with others.

You want zeal that comes for most of the population when you have a plan that makes sense with blue prints for the technologies that pull it off.

You want MY zeal, that means actually pointing me towards any design process you have going. Which hasn't happened despite asking that question more or less three times now.

For the most part however, never mind, don't bother.

It seems clear that nobody here has the time, energy, or zeal to actually work problems open source, and it seems that I'm wasting my time here.

Good luck with your chit chat zone, and trying to talk people into a moon centered approach when all real sense, mathematics, and tactical strategy say go with an asteroids centered approach.

CIAO.

So, which one of the hundred-odd posts here regarding my designs and calculations did you miss?

JR

[moonus111]

I used to be a blue (asteroid advocate) it took a long time to come over to the silver side.

Patience we all want to get our feet in space!

[joertexas]

I used to be a blue (asteroid advocate) it took a long time to come over to the silver side.

Patience we all want to get our feet in space!

It took me finally sitting down and learning how to use Jaqar's Swingby Calculator to find the real Delta Vee costs and mission times. Like Paul Harvey used to say: "and that's the *rest* of the story"!


JR

[Rhyshaelkan]

RIP Paul Harvey


I have been a lunar hard-liner for years. Missions to asteroids always seemed much more complex. With that complexity comes higher price-tags in terms of mass and $$$$$$$.

[Mark Prado]

You want MY zeal, that means actually pointing me towards any design process you have going. Which hasn't happened despite asking that question more or less three times now.
...
or zeal to actually work problems open source

Many veterans in this business get tired of hearing from people who criticize others without creating and promoting things themselves. That's part of the problem, not part of the solution.

JoeRTexas has put some things forward. There are many references on the website, albeit the database died about 10 years ago.

If you can hold on for about a week, the PERMANENT publications database will be back on-line in a new form (PHP/MySQL) as best I can piece it together.

People waste time, effort, and resources by rushing out to design something without first reading about prior work in the professional technical literature. To not do so is to risk reinventing the wheel.

It's not as if there aren't designs out there. There are many, many designs out there already. It is not about lack of designs.

It is about putting all this together into coherent business plans.

And mostly it is about finding money and sponsors.

I will tell you quite frankly that the main problem of space resources is NOT lack of zeal by the general public, nor lack of engineering analysis and designs. The problem is a lack of money.

I have followed the efforts of many highly competent people like Jim Benson, Peter Diamandis, Dr. John S. Lewis, and some other impressive people, to raise venture capital for space resources utilization.

(There are countless additional people who are a bit too academic or self-righteous in my views.)

(OK, maybe I would do things differently than them if I had the money and staff to contact philanthropic investors, and maybe I think I could do things better, but obviously I have not been successful to date, either, to get anybody to invest in lunar and/or asteroidal resources utilization. (And I'm not going to judge which of the two is "better"; like apples and oranges, there are tradeoffs.) But I won't give up until we succeed. No cynical excuses for giving up. It's possible, and it's only a matter of how good we are. Live and learn.)

What we need most is:

1. An organizational structure in which people can contribute, be they engineers, business people, public relations specialists, or just ordinary laymen. Databases (publications, professionals, media outlets, volunteers) will make up a big part of this, as will tracking information and activities.

2. Lists of what needs to be done.

3. Business plans to be vetted.

4. A fund raising process.

There is not one "the best way". There are multiple potential ways to get space resources accomplished, depending on several factors which include how much money you have to invest in this, your timeline, what profits are your goals, and what risks you're willing to take.

In about a week, I will put my database up for public consumption. Then I will ask all of you to go research the internet to find resources to add to it. My database is mainly 1980 to 2002, and I'm missing a lot of stuff from 2002 to date.

You will see that there are plenty of designs and people out there already.

Whatever we do, we should be building on top of existing work, not reinventing the wheel.

I was trained as a scientist and published research papers before. (I also briefly worked in the US Patent Office as an examiner.) You don't just rush into design and production on a project according to your own design. The first thing you do is research all the work that has been done to date. Then you see what you can contribute on top of that.

What I want PERMANENT to do is first try to put together existing designs and professional people.

But the make or break part, as all the professionals know, is finding the investors and money.

That requires a good and convincing presentation of the concepts and a sustainable business plan ... the way we will use the money to bootstrap up.

But for now, I must go out of town tomorrow and work so that I can continue to pay for all of this... spending my time, talents, and efforts on some things entirely unrelated to space or the future of our species, just ordinary business stuff ... because, folks, we ain't got the money.

It's not lack of ideas or designs or things like that. It's lack of money. Except my own. I've put many tens of thousands of dollars into PERMANENT over 25 years (probably over 100K), but donations over the past year from the Donations button is less than $100 -- less than the cost of this forum software license alone. Much less than the cost of ordering one conference proceedings report and shipping it to myself to read. I've spent over $1000 just the past two months on programming parts of this site, and a few thousand dollars on some of the back office such as my people databases (which aren't public yet, and won't be for awhile). I also have a custom project management system ...

But the publications database is nearly ready for public presentation, so you will have some answers to some of your questions ... and something to do -- to help develop.

What we do not need is people saying "You all should do XYZ."
What we DO need is people saying "I'm willing to do XYZ. Here's what I can and will do."

Otherwise, if you have no time, then please just click on the Donations button. That would be highly appreciated. You will have done something for your generation and the future of our species and life on Earth, not have been just another selfish animal in today's hedonistic human society. Have you really contributed to any cause for the greater good? Not just talk on forums, but something substantive?

[joertexas]

I'm doing my best to help formulate a business plan for a lunar mining mission. As I get the resources to do more, I'll step up my involvement.

JR

[JohnHunt]

I guess since many have been sharing their lunar conversion story, I will share my own.

When I first discovered the PERMANENT website, I was impressed with the information and potential about asteroids. Some have interesting compositions and orbits. But at the same time I realized that the Moon was always nearby. Yet it was lacking in volatiles. So, although I leaned toward the Moon, I was open about an asteroidal mission being preferable. So I started a thread here trying to get to the bottom of this matter.

I'm still open minded but I have found myself settling on the Moon for the following reasons. Since coming here there have been a series of findings suggesting or even indicating the presence of water ice on the Moon.

In private e-mail with Dr. Spudis he point blank answered a few critical questions for me. I was concerned that the lunar south pole might have water concentration too low to be useful. But he indicated that the LCROSS impactor indicated that water ice was found to be at 5-10%. Also, he indicates that the lunar poles are not energetically much worse than the lunar equator. Finally, he indicated that the amount of energy needed to break O from Si was much higher than O from H.

But, probably the biggest thing that seals it for me is that the Moon is always 3 light seconds away from Earth. This means that it can be developed with telerobotics. For saving money (e.g. using existing commercial launchers) and hoping for a regular slice of the NASA budget, I think that non-manned, initial development is essential. I have a harder time believing that we will bring an volatile-laded asteroid to the Earth-Moon system than we will telerobotically extract water ice from the Moon.

I am hopeful that lunar ice can be brought to LEO in propellant quantities. If it can then I believe this changes everything. It opens up the solar system. But that is not my true priority but rather just a means to an end.

That end is the establishment of an off-Earth self-sustaining human colony. With Mark, I too am very concerned with the potential of self-replicating technology threatening human existence starting around 2050. I believe that a martian colony can be established but that a lunar colony can be established at, say, 1/10th the price and so sooner. Developing mining operations there gets us closer and, I believe, that lunar landers for mining operations will be able to deliver enough mass to drop an astronaut on the lunar surface. Telerobotic operations can prepare the Moon for a manned colony and the landers can deliver them. Sufficient quantities of carbon and nitrogen can be delivered but closed-system life support.

Again, I'm open minded about either asteroids or Mars but right now I'm leaning strongly toward the Moon.