Japan: robotic moon base operating by 2020

[Sam Fraser]

A Japanese government panel has produced a draft paper outlining how humanoid rover robots will begin surveying the moon by 2015, according to a report by the prime minister's office.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-17938_105-20006075-1.html
http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ja&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fmoriyama.com%2Fnode%2F2010%2F05%2F2 6%2F2889

Price tag: US$2.2 billion. Not a lot more info and I'm not even sure if this is approved or just a proposal.

[JohnHunt]

Yes, I saw this.

To me it illustrates once more that the concept of a lunar base and teleoperated robots on the Moon are ideas whose time has come.

Also, that other nations are looking at the Moon to me indicates that, if NASA continues to bypass the Moon, then they will be leaving the Moon and possibly the cis-lunar economy to other countries. I think that it would be a strange day when a country or company offers to supply water fuel to LEO to NASA for its missions to Mars (and at a substantially profitable cost). At that point it would be reasonable to wonder if NASA had made a mistake bypassing the Moon on the way to Mars.

[moonus111]

Gotta love the Japanese they're on the ball on this stuff all the time.

[Sam Fraser]

At that price, they'll be using domestic launchers and technologies developed or to be developed domestically. Using the PERMANENT approach of choosing the most competitively priced suppliers, contractors and launch providers with proven off-the-shelf hardware and products, we could probably do it for US$1b and change. :cool:

[Sam Fraser]

Only 2010 and already the Japanese have demonstrated their first fully operational prototypes to the public:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xcZJqiUrbnI&

The four androids moved with amazing dexterity and range, but the girl in the middle was a bit stiff. Maybe it was nerves.

[joertexas]

The four androids moved with amazing dexterity and range, but the girl in the middle was a bit stiff. Maybe it was nerves.

That was simply... amazing. I wonder how much programming that took?

JR

[joertexas]

I think that it would be a strange day when a country or company offers to supply water fuel to LEO to NASA for its missions to Mars (and at a substantially profitable cost). At that point it would be reasonable to wonder if NASA had made a mistake bypassing the Moon on the way to Mars.

Well, I think we can deliver water and other lunar products in LEO for $1,000/kg with a net investment of about $1B. My calculations involve using four OTVs to deliver 900,000kg per year to LEO. I don't know if we can generate that kind of demand for water or whatever else we can deliver, but that volume would generate $900M yer year. Not too bad.

JR

[Rhyshaelkan]

*bans Sam for putting a dance routine in a robotics thread*

Got a thing for asian girls eh?

All joking aside. I am surprised the 'bot has that good of balance.


Well, I think we can deliver water and other lunar products in LEO for $1,000/kg with a net investment of about $1B. My calculations involve using four OTVs to deliver 900,000kg per year to LEO. I don't know if we can generate that kind of demand for water or whatever else we can deliver, but that volume would generate $900M yer year. Not too bad.

JR


Are you planning on using VASIMR OTVs? Or is there another reason why you want four OTVs? I would think one would do if based on a LH2/LOX drive(3½ days travel from LEO to LLO). With slow VASIMR(110? days from LEO to LLO) though, yes four OTVs could be in constant travel.

[Sam Fraser]

Yes, initially moon rocks for their novelty factor and lunar water. Both require minimal processing. When revenues from those products are used to developing a more advanced mining operation, maybe lunar PGM:

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/479/1

PGM asteroids will have impacted the moon at lower speeds, so PGMs may exist in a form that doesn't as much processing as on Earth. Platinum is currently $54,000/kg, so "only" 20,000 kg a year would bring $1b in revenues.

[Rhyshaelkan]

And if you are conducting operation from Luna.

What were the costs of mining, robots, humans, infrastructure. How long did it take? How are you returning it to Earth? Will it be used in astro-manufacturing instead? Will astro-materials "count" as hard-assets in a banking system?

Lots of fun questions. Most of the PGMs have technological value in addition to being rare and pretty. So they could be sold and utilized in the various, electronics, fuel-cells, etc.

If you are making an ablative cocoon from lunar materials to return materials to Earth the costs drop dramatically. As you will not have to haul mass from Earth just to return it to Earth.

In addition. If you have humans, robots, and infrastructure on Luna for operations and the mining of the PGMs do not take all of that capability. The revenue from the sale or holding of the metals(if we were a new Swiss band, Fort Knox, treasury) could keep year to year operations moving. While revenue from other areas(construction of SPSs, space-probes, communication platforms, fuel, tourism, medical data(collected from our human crew), etc, etc, etc) pays dividends to investors, and is reinvested in the organization.

Cost analysis should not be that hard when you REALLY start looking at hard numbers. All this plan needs is a wealthy patron.

[joertexas]

[QUOTE=Rhyshaelkan;2139Are you planning on using VASIMR OTVs? Or is there another reason why you want four OTVs? I would think one would do if based on a LH2/LOX drive(3½ days travel from LEO to LLO). With slow VASIMR(110? days from LEO to LLO) though, yes four OTVs could be in constant travel.[/QUOTE]

I was only considering H2/LOX engines, since VASIMR is slow and requires fuel that hasn't been proven to exist on the moon - yet.

JR

[joertexas]

All this plan needs is a wealthy patron.

This is interesting (from the Space Review (http://www.thespacereview.com/article/479/1)article):

However, as Michael Mealling has astutely noted (http://www.rocketforge.org/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=391&mode=thread&order=0&thold=0) in the context of a space-related charitable giving, there is a chicken and egg problem here.
As I discovered with the Artemis Project, any endeavor like this has a huge “chicken and egg” problem: in order to receive those charitable donations you need to show significant and continuing progress, but in order to show that progress you need very large amounts of cash in hand to prime that pump. If you can start out with a large enough sum to create a perception that the effort actually does something then the donations will come in and you can continue that effort. But without it you are continually struggling with a credibility problem that you simply cannot overcome.Given what Mark and others have put in so far, my guess is that we need about US$4 million to really get this project moving. It's not easy, but it is doable.

JR